Cubs Number-Crunching

It’s been hard to do this since I started my job in January.  I’m hoping to improve my skills and get on the blogging thing more.  Let’s get better. 

It’s also been hard to write when I’ve been caught up in speeding home to watch the Cubs play.  I’m excited.  I’m also pretty much scared.  It’s a good looking team, maybe too good for me to live through it without a stroke or a coronary. 

Let’s just pay attention to starting pitching lines from this week’s series with Milwaukee:

Monday - Lilly - 6IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 4K, 1BB

Tuesday - Zambrano - 8IP, 5H, 0R, 9K, 2BB

Wednesday - Dempster - 7IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 9K, 1BB

Thursday - Harden - 7IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 9K, 0BB

Add that up: from Cubs starters, 28IP, 23H, 5ER, 31K, 4BB (!) 

That would give you a WHIP of 0.96 (that’s good), and an ERA of 1.61 (that’s really good). 

The Cubs scored as many runs as the Brewers had strikeouts.  That with a couple of O-fer performances from D-Lee.  Someone came up big at the plate every day, though. 

Starting pitching has been very, very good for the Cubs this year.  Jason Marquis, as frustrating as he can be, might be the best fifth starter in the whole league. 

Marquis is averaging 6 IP over his last 10 starts.  He tends to struggle early in games, which isn’t a great attribute, but when the bullpen needs a break, he can settle down and gobble up innings better than anyone. 

But it doesn’t matter.

We can say that “starting pitching wins championships” but we know that there are no hard and fast rules to this business.  The 2006 Cardinals went 83-79 and tiptoed through the playoffs with a patchwork rotation that included 2 guys who barely have jobs in the league anymore in Jeff Weaver and Anthony Reyes.   How about the whole “small ball” thing.  I don’t know if you noticed, but the 2008 Red Sox could really drive the ball, and I think there were quite a few 1920s Yankee teams that might have had a little pop in their bats. 

The Cubs, and the Sox, and any team can sign up or trade for all of the “left-handed bats with pop,” or “power righty in the bullpen,” or “dreaded 1,2 combination at the top of the rotation.”  For all the stat-keeping and stat-creating we can do, every champion and pennant winner has a few exceptions to the rules.  The formulas definitely don’t always work, and it gets even more jumbled in the playoffs.  Bullpens and lead-off hitters don’t guarantee anything right now.  Wins don’t even guarantee anything now.  The only win that will give you a guarantee is the last one.  The rest of them just give you another chance.

 AJD

What a Day

Well, today motivated me to write.

Everyone, you better hope your baseball team is playing in October, because there is not going to be one thing to look forward to in this city.

We should be on top of the world. Both baseball teams are in first place. But all the Nicky the Swish homeruns and Kid K saves in the world combined can’t shake this town’s label: this town is about football.

And the Staleys are about to enter a new era, an era where the starting backfield could very well be…Kyle Orton and Matt Forte.

On top of that, the team that hosted the city’s most identifiable player, and greatest superstar, is about to hire a head coach that has never coached. Ever.

I always caution against getting excited too early, but go ahead baseball fans. If you don’t get excited about baseball, you aren’t going to have anything. Ignore it, Chicago.

When we talk about position competition, let’s not bring up Grossman vs. Orton. (sounds like Celebrity Boxing in 3 years) How about we talk about Jim Edmonds v. Reed Johnson, or Alexei Ramirez or Pierzynski at the 2-hole in the Sox lineup? Instead of the cognac that Joakim Noah drinks, let’s talk about Big Z’s cheeseburger addiction, or how it’s nice to be able to have a margarita out of a backpack at the Cell. Vinny the Black (Vinny del Negro)? How about Hank White (Henry Blanco)?! Just block it all out, Chicago.

At least you can get a cold Old Style or 12.

Finally

Finally, the Bulls are done, and I can be optimistic about Chicago again.

For as bad as the Bulls have been post-MJ, this might have been the worst and certainly is the most disappointing team. They were lazy, they had players with giant egos and little ability, and the only thing that kept them from being the New York Knicks was the lack of ridiculous contracts. And that was just luck.

The Bulls offered BG7 and Lu huge, $10 million/yr contracts that they turned down. Wow…thanks! The Bulls will want Gordon and Deng back, but now, will probably be able to pay them less, and keep some of that cap room open. And if they get big offers elsewhere, the biggest failure is that Paxson never traded them when he should have. At their peak value, a Gordon/Deng deal was probably worth Pau Gasol, who will be part of what looks like a championship Lakers team. Sure, they have Kobe, but he probably would have been a nice piece of at least a competitive Bulls squad in 2008.

But at least there’s baseball. Cubs got off to an inauspicious beginning, but look phenomenal right now. White Sox are playing well, too. Both teams have starting pitching to worry about…I refuse to make any unnecessary predictions yet.

However, this is not very smart. You’re kidding, right? This early? Really?

Bears are picking up Fox-32 as broadcast partner. We can only hope they pick up Tom Waddle, who was hilarious on the NBC-5 broadcast last year. More on this here.

Don’t you feel good knowing that Ronny Cedeno is thinking “World Series?” I don’t want Ronny thinking anything but “don’t screw this up” or “I’ll never shake that ‘AAAA’ player label.”

Also, hasn’t Benny the Bull been in a lot of trouble lately?

AJD

This is Important

Read Sam Smith for the last time; hopefully only for a while.

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/basketball/bulls/askthewriter/cs-080326asksamsmith,1,1156910.story

Back soon.

By the (My) Numbers: Brett Favre

Whoever is up there, thank you for making Brett Favre retire. It’s been a rough 17 years.

I doubted him, I found him overrated more than a few times. But deep down, I’m a numbers guy, and I when I look at his numbers, he was certainly one of the best.

It’s true; anyone can manipulate stats to prove anything. And right now, I’m about to do it to prove that Sal Paolantonio is wrong in his column about Favre being one of the most overrated quarterbacks ever. Read it.

Quarterbacks, by nature, are overrated or underrated. It might be the only position in professional sports where, unless you are truly horrible, it is impossible to judge a player. Paolantonio lists Favre as the second most overrated quarterback of all time, behind Joe Namath.

First of all, the fact that Bob Griese isn’t on this list is ridiculous, look at his numbers, courtesy of Pro Football Reference:

Year G GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD INT
Career 161 151 1926 3429 56.2 25092 192 172

Of course, it’s impossible to compare eras. Two stats that are telling to me, no matter what, is TD/INT ratio, and completion %. Griese’s is 1.12 td/int. A completion % well under 60%. To add to his overhype, he had a season in which he threw 12 Tds, 17 INTs, and was selected as an All-Pro. Ridiculous. Let’s look at an actual great QB in John Elway:

Year G GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD INT
Career 234 231 4123 7250 56.9 51475 300 226

Elway was truly amazing. He won two Super Bowls, went to another two, and might have been the best QB, pre-Brady, in the clutch. His TD/INT: 1.33.

Sal Pal tells us that Favre wasn’t even the best QB in Packers’ franchise history, giving that title to the legendary Bart Starr. Starr had fantastic playoff success in a completely different era in the NFL. The AFL was hardly integrated, there were little or no playoffs, and the running game and defense were supreme. But, for fun, let’s look at Starr’s numbers:

Year G GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD INT
Career 196 158 1808 3149 57.4 24718 152 138

Starr had impressive playoff stats, as are shown in Paolantonio’s article, but his career numbers are truly pedestrian. Starr may have retired as the NFL’s most accurate passer, but, as you’ll see when we show Favre’s stats, he’s certainly slipped far behind. If Eli Manning would get run out of New York for Favre’s numbers, there may have been an effigy for some of the seasons Starr had. 1958 he threw 3 TDs and 12 INTs. In 1967 he threw 9 touchdowns and 17 INTs. Truly Rex-ian.

Finally, let’s look at Favre’s breakdown:

Year G GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD INT
Career 257 253 5377 8758 61.4 61655 442 288

TD/INT: 1.53. The end of his career, Favre had one brutal season, in 2005 when he threw 20 touchdowns and 29 INTs. In 2004 he went for 30/17, in 2003, 32/21. He only had three full seasons in which he threw more INTs than touchdowns, less than Starr and Griese, and same amount as Elway. Elway never had seasons of 39/13, 38/13, 35/16, or even 32/15. Completion % : 61.4%.

Making the case that Montana, Marino, even Unitas were better, those are at least arguable and pretty true. Montana was more accurate and won more Super Bowls; Marino had a better TD/INT. I can manipulate statistics just as well as Sal Pal, and I think I’m right.

I just stood up for a Packer. I feel dirty.

AJD

A New Stone Age

I might actually listen to the White Sox now that they’ve added Steve Stone to the broadcasts.

The interminable ramblings and stammerings of Chris Singleton are moving onto the network where that belongs: ESPN. Talking for minutes at a time without ever coming to a point or conclusion is prized on the family of networks.

Stone will provide the same balanced perspective that he brought to the Cubs broadcasts. He presented quality information, but also provided commentary on what he must have known the fan was thinking. He was ousted after the Mitchell-accused Kent Mercker took his ‘roid rage out on the bullpen telephone, calling Stone in the press box after he was extremely critical of manager Dusty Baker’s decisions.

Stone was critical, but he was right. It was what all of us were thinking. Baker was predictable, and the team in 2005 was often not put in an opportunity to win. The organization showed its continued incompetency by letting Stone go after the season. Any team that lets Kent Mercker make its decisions doesn’t have much of a chance of winning a championship.

As much as I like Len and Bob, listening to Stone and Harry Caray comprises a good piece of my childhood sports memories. White Sox fans are lucky to have him.

And Chris Singleton was awful.

Sadly for Sox fans, as Ted Cox points out, this is probably the White Sox best move of the Spring. Really hoping that Alexei Ramirez works out!!

I feel bad for being predictable, but another Mariotti rip. Why get on Brett Favre’s case for retiring “so close to attaining the happy ending?” Remember, he already attained the happy endings. He won the Super Bowl, the MVPs, and broke all the records. I think he’s done enough. He’s done way more than I ever wanted him to do.

I didn’t know this at the time, but congratulations to Rick Telander on being named the state’s top sportswriter. Writing in Jay Mariotti’s dirty shadow of sensationalism makes it easy to be overlooked. If jerks like me spent less time calling him and idiot, and more time talking about what Telander has done, we might not have to deal with Jay Mariotti, Around the Horn, Mancow, Bill O’Reilly, and Jose Canseco.

AJD

Busterblock Trade

So, you’ve enjoyed the basketball season so far. The Bulls and Illini came in priding themselves on great defense and rebounding. It has taken them only so far without any sort of offense to speak of.

What is most frustrating about these teams is their unwillingness to shoot. Not only can’t they score, no one even wants to score! Kirk Hinrich and Trent Meacham have dished away so many open shots that they are starting to look like Rex in the Super Bowl. The only guys who have wanted to take shots are Demitri McCamey and Ben Gordon, and they are streaky (at least McCamey has an excuse, he’s a Freshman).

So, picking up Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden seems like a viable option for dumping off the failed Ben Wallace experiment. Drew Gooden can contribute some offense in the post, and Larry Hughes LOVES to shoot. He’s famous for shooting, a lot. On a team where no one likes to shoot, having a guy who loves to shoot sounds perfectly feasible. He, Antawn Jamison, and Gilbert Arenas scorched the Bulls in the 2004 Playoffs. Hopefully, he can bring some of the mercenary instinct that the Bulls are missing.

Unfortunately, the Illini won’t be making any trades anytime soon.

Let’s see what’s being written around Chicago these days:

Mike Downey has been extremely supportive of John Paxson through this process, which is refreshing for a columnist in this area. However, for as much as I appreciate the support, I think the past two seasons have shown some extreme deficiencies in his management. For as much as we supported the Ben Wallace signing as fans, we aren’t being paid to scout the talent and make the moves. We rally around them because we are fans of these teams, and we have no choice.

David Haugh makes an early assessment on the Bears off-season thus far, and it seems pretty accurate. They, like the Bulls, seem to be afraid to make a defining move.

Jay Mariotti calls someone the “Biggest Bust of All Time”…..AGAIN! Seems like someone takes this post every two months. Dolly Parton will always have my vote (har har har).Has anyone ever been so infuriated by everybody? Oh yeah…me…by Jay Mariotti.

Greg Couch made a great point: that this was very much a trade where, although the Bulls will get four players who can play, it will mostly be known as a dump of Ben Wallace.

AJD

We Were Right

The Orange Krush poured the chant down on Kelvin Sampson for most of last Thursday’s game:

“CHEATER, CHEATER, CHEATER”

Only having proof of all of those times that Sampson cheated, ESPN determined that Illini fans should get over it. It turns out, not only were they correct in the first place, they were prophetic.

It’s not hard to be prophetic in such a case. Predict that a singer is going to sing, a player is going to play, a baker is going to bake. Singers sing, players play, bakers bake, and cheaters cheat.

Sampson has been faced with NCAA rules violations at every stop. He will almost certainly be fired or forced to resign at IU. Everyone saw this coming. Most fans at Indiana, although hopeful as any fan, would have told you that there was a distinct possibility that Kelvin would be himself. Indiana fans care a lot about winning basketball games, but, my understanding, is that they care a lot more about being proud of their basketball program. They had the cleanest program in the country for over 30 years, with the winningest coach of all time.

Illini fans have endured a tough year in basketball. Suspended players, injuries, and a losing season have made it, in a word, painful. They can’t score, they can’t finish a game, and they can’t make free throws. But, much like Indiana fans enjoyed for so long, they can be confident that their program is operated with a certain level of dignity. Players who transgress are punished. The coaches have complied with the regulations of the league. Bruce Weber is 123-42.

For the Illini, there is an exciting future, with the opportunity to have phenomenal teams in both basketball and football. Indiana is looking at a troubled future with the NCAA; and Kelvin Sampson should fear for his job.

[Speaking of the Illini future, who wasn’t thrilled to watch Demitri McCamey last week. He can run pretty well, and he’s got the strength to go to the basket. More exciting were his massive “crilladillos,” which he showed off by, down three, stepping up to the three-point line with a cushion and 25 seconds left on the shot clock, rising up and knocking down the game-tying shot. He could have waited, but finally, there is a player who isn’t afraid to shoot when he sees the opportunity]

We get to look forward. Indiana is going to be stuck in the past for the next few months.

AJD

Icicles On the Rim

John Paxson is the reason for all of the snow in Chicago. I think the rims at the United Center have caused some kind of strange cold air flow over the city.

We have been lucky enough to witness the blossoming of LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s becoming a proven post scorer.

Tyson Chandler has a knack for being in the right place at the right time, and is arguably the best post defender
and rebounder in the NBA.

Pau Gasol became available in trade, and led his team to a W with a double-double.

They should make special “witness” T-shirts for Bulls fans. Witness…everyone else has exactly what your team needs.

The Bulls had every opportunity to acquire Gasol, and passed. They drafted Aldridge, and traded him for Tyrus Thomas, who has been extremely useless. Tyson Chandler suited up for the Bulls.

Aldridge and Chandler were honest mistakes. Gasol to anyone but the Bulls sounds like a John Paxson problem: lack
of testicular fortitude.

We’ve heard so many exciting deals come across Paxson’s desk. For a guy who took the game winning shot in an NBA Finals, his ballslessness is extreme, and scary. Some very positive deals appear to have been waiting for Pax to pull the trigger, but he’s been so afraid to let go of Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, and they very well may end up as free agents.

Paxson has done a phenomenal job of rebuilding a devastated franchise. But we’ve seen the “core” of the Bulls take a step back. He’s taking a lot of heat already from the local media, and I think that Paxson deserves a little leeway. However, like his team on the court, he lacks the killer instinct. The sort of instinct that was best exemplified by the teams he played on in Chicago.

There are no guarantees that any of these players could have seen success with the Bulls. Professional sports is very much about being in the right place at the right time. Being in John Paxson’s shoes is a rough place right now. Being in the United Center isn’t much better. The rims are not warming up, and this long and disastrous Chicago winter just rolls on.

AJD

It’s Too Cold to Blog, or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Complain About Something Else

It’s been a while since we had a Winter so brutal that there just wasn’t anything worth discussing.

The Bulls are nearly as unwatchable as the Illini basketball team. The resurgent Blackhawks are still out of the playoff picture and are extremely streaky. The Bears haven’t even glanced at a football field since 2007. This is ugly.

When the talk of the town is baseball, and there are still icicles, you know it’s going to be a long Winter. Instead of waiting for the inflammatory columns on Grossman and Gordon, we are stuck already trying to get under the skin of Jon Lieber and Nick Swisher, and continuing to burn Kenny Williams and Jim Hendry. What can we do with ourselves?

I’ve spent the time in a few different ways. I further indulged my developing hockey sweet tooth. I adopted the New England Patriots out of hatred for the ‘72 Dolphins. I bitched and moaned. I made Cubs line up possibilities. Could Fukudome lead off? What’s going to happen to Jason Marquis?

We’ll see if I can squeeze anything in between viewings of Bobby Flay’s Throwdown and Brady Bootgate Bash.

AJD